Probablistic Forecasting

Our initial goal

How might we establish Probablistic Forecasting as the standard approach for answering the questions of:

• When will X be done?
• Can we achieve X by this date?

Sprint 1

We aimed to gain shared understanding of what probablistic forecasting is; and the problem that we wanted to solve.

We determined that there are a range of techniques that can used for forecasting. We also established several elements of good agility that supports forecasting by either stabilising velocity or improving accuracy of our forecasts. Additional We looked at how to use the forecast and how we communicate with the forecast.

Through this sprint we discovered that there may be an opportunity to develop a training course around probablistic forecasting.

Sprint 2

We confirmed that there are possible opportuntities to develop a short course or extend some existing training courses.

We then created a course outline that incorporated the Data Analytics Lifecycle.

Sprint 3

We focused on the course agenda item: how to choose the technique that is most relevant for your situation.

We detailed out several but not all criteria that could be used to develop a decision tree.